Elliott Investment Management L.P.ActivistGARPConcentrated long-term

Elliott Investment Management (led by Paul Singer and Jonathan Pollock) warned that debt-fueled risk-taking, AI hype, budget deficits, inflation, private credit, and speculative trading indicate a substantial bear market may be ahead, comparing the climate to the 1920s boom preceding the Great Depression. The $80 billion firm reported flat third-quarter returns and under 2% gains for the first nine months of 2026, trailing the S&P 500, T-bills, and the hedge-fund composite index. The firm is positioned defensively, prioritizing capital preservation to deploy during turmoil, and sees opportunities in healthcare activism, producing energy properties, and dislocated credit markets.

• Elliott's performance lagged: flat Q3 and under 2% YTD through September, trailing the S&P 500's ~13% and T-bills' ~3%.
• Q3 sector results were mixed: commodities, arbitrage, and credit hedges were profitable; distressed debt and gold/currency/equity/rate hedges were not.
• The firm's strategy is to protect the downside and keep capital ready to buy bargains when the market turns.
• It identifies activist investing in healthcare and energy properties, plus buying from forced sellers in credit, as upcoming opportunities.
• Elliott warns that disruption in only one or two boom factors could trigger a cascading unwind, shifting the market from FOMO to FOGO (fear of getting obliterated).